Sunday, March 3, 2013

Yet More Updates on the Potential Impact of C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) with Mars

Further observations of comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring, and finding some old observations have refined the orbit more, the new calculations put closest approach at 0.00039 AU or around 58,000 km.

This is still further out than the 0.00023 AU close approach of 2012 DA14, which missed us by two Earth diameters.

The calculated probability of the comet hitting Mars now is around 0.08%. See Leonid Elenin's article at SpaceObs for more details.
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/03/03/probability-of-collision-with-mars/

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